New Results of the Method of Medium-Term Seismic Forecasting LURR (on the Example of New Zealand)

International science and technology conference "Earth science"

Zakupin, A.S.^1 ; Kamenev, P.A.^1

Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics Far Eastern Branch Russian Academy of Science, 1B Nauka str., Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk

694020, Russia^1

关键词: Deformation process;    Linear theory;    Load unload response ratio;    Prediction-based;    Seismic catalog;    Seismic event;    Space distribution;    Strong earthquakes;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/272/3/032065/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/272/3/032065

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This paper is devoted to the method of strong earthquakes prediction based on the analysis of seismic catalogues with involvement of the Coulomb-Mohr's criteria and basic laws of linear theory of elasticity. This method is well-known as LURR (load-unload response ratio). Inherently, it allows to identify attainment of the deformation process of the phase when medium response to loading can be no longer linear (predestruction). The technique has been successfully applied in Sakhalin and in the present work its capabilities were tested in the new conditions. The research is based on New Zealand seismic catalog with (Mw > 3). We have considered retrospective seismic events related to time and space distribution.