Medium-Term Prediction of Sakhalin's Dangerous Seismic Events in the LURR and SRP Models

International science and technology conference "Earth science"

Zakupin, A.S.^1

Institute of Marine Geology, Geophysics Far Eastern Branch Russian Academy of Science, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk

693022, Russia^1

关键词: Deformation process;    Linear theory;    Load unload response ratio;    Prediction-based;    Seismic catalog;    Seismic event;    Self-organized process;    Strong earthquakes;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/272/2/022021/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/272/2/022021

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This paper is devoted to the two methods of strong earthquakes prediction based on the analysis of seismic catalogues. The first method is well-known as LURR (load-unload response ratio) and involve the Coulomb-Mohr's criteria and basic laws of linear theory of elasticity. Inherently, it allows identify attainment of the deformation process of the phase when medium response to loading can be no longer linear (pre-destruction). The second method so called as SRP has relation to self-organized processes theory. The both methods have proved the effectiveness on the Sakhalin but have used separately. The research is based on Sakhalin seismic catalog (Mw > 2). We have considered retrospectively seismic event near the Cape Krillon in case of combination of two methods.