Assessing drought vulnerability using climate change models around Bantimurung Bulusaraung National Park, Indonesia

1st Biennial Conference on Tropical Biodiversity

Barkey, R.^1^2 ; Nursaputra, M.^2 ; Mappiase, M.F.^1

Research Center for Natural Heritage, Biodiversity and Climate Change, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, South Sulawesi, Indonesia^1

Laboratory of Regional Planning and Forestry Information System, Faculty of Forestry, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, South Sulawesi, Indonesia^2

关键词: Climate change scenarios;    Climate variability;    Community activities;    Complex ecosystems;    Soil and water assessment tool;    Soil moisture deficits;    Vulnerability models;    Water concentrations;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/270/1/012007/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/270/1/012007

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Climate variability causes increased rainfall intensity in the rainy season and an increase in the number of dry season days. This condition almost occurs in all parts of Indonesia, especially in the southern part of South Sulawesi Province, which has a fairly complex ecosystem characteristics, one of which is the Bantimurung Bulusaraung National Park ecosystem which has the character of a special landscape in the form of karst area and many community activities in several buffer villages. In Maros, Pangkep and Bone Regencies depend on their livelihood in the region. One of the impacts of climate change occurring around the Bantimurung Bulusaraung National Park area is the increasing potential for drought. Drought occurrences in Bantimurung Bulusaraung National Park mostly occur due to the low rainfall in the dry season which is facilitated by the characteristics of the land in the form of karst area which very quickly passes water down the surface so that the water concentration in the surface is very low. Drought hazard analysis in the Bantimurung Bulusaraung National Park Area was studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model by analyzing the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (groundwater content) in actual conditions (climate period 2004-2013) and projected climate change in the 2030s period, using RCP 4.5 scenario (rainfall scenario tends to decrease) and RCP 6.0 (rainfall scenario tends to increase). Based on the analysis of the vulnerability model, it was found that some regions of the buffer villages of Bantimurung Balasaraung National Park had very high levels of vulnerability to drought hazards. The high level of vulnerability in actual conditions covers an area of 22,727.75 ha, and in the climate change scenario, 4.5 RCP covers 24,584.08 ha and RCP 6.0 scenarios covering an area of 20,642.81 ha.