Predictive Modeling of Rice Yellow Stem Borer Population Dynamics under Climate Change Scenarios in Indramayu

3rd International Seminar On Sciences "Sciences On Precision And Sustainable Agriculture"

Nurhayati, E.^1,2 ; Koesmaryono, Y.^1 ; Impron^1

Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bogor Agricultural University, Kampus IPB Dramaga, Jl. Meranti, Bogor

16680, Indonesia^1

Stamet Radin Inten II Bandar Lampung, Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics Agency, Jl. Alamsyah Ratu Prawira Negara KM. 28 Branti, Lampung Selatan

35364, Indonesia^2

关键词: Calibration and validations;    Climate change scenarios;    Climate parameters;    Climatic conditions;    Coefficient of determination;    Environmental factors;    Generation numbers;    Predictive modeling;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/58/1/012054/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/58/1/012054

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Rice Yellow Stem Borer (YSB) is one of the major insect pests in rice plants that has high attack intensity in rice production center areas, especially in West Java. This pest is consider as holometabola insects that causes rice damage in the vegetative phase (deadheart) as well as generative phase (whitehead). Climatic factor is one of the environmental factors influence the pattern of dynamics population. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive modeling of YSB pest dynamics population under climate change scenarios (2016-2035 period) using Dymex Model in Indramayu area, West Java. YSB modeling required two main components, namely climate parameters and YSB development lower threshold of temperature (To) to describe YSB life cycle in every phase. Calibration and validation test of models showed the coefficient of determination (R2) between the predicted results and observations of the study area were 0.74 and 0.88 respectively, which was able to illustrate the development, mortality, transfer of individuals from one stage to the next life also fecundity and YSB reproduction. On baseline climate condition, there was a tendency of population abundance peak (outbreak) occured when a change of rainfall intensity in the rainy season transition to dry season or the opposite conditions was happen. In both of application of climate change scenarios, the model outputs were generated well and able to predict the pattern of YSB population dynamics with a the increasing trend of specific population numbers, generation numbers per season and also shifting pattern of populations abundance peak in the future climatic conditions. These results can be adopted as a tool to predict outbreak and to give early warning to control YSB pest more effectively.