The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in Tibet based on Pareto

2018 4th International Conference on Environmental Science and Material Application

生态环境科学;材料科学

Gao, Jiajia^1 ; Huang, Xiaoqing^1

Tibet Climate Center, Lhasa

850000, China^1

关键词: Daily precipitations;    Extreme precipitation;    Extreme value;    Heavy precipitation;    Maximum likelihood methods;    Northwest regions;    Precipitation events;    Precipitation extremes;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/252/4/042071/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/252/4/042071

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The daily precipitation data of 1959-2017 years from May to September, with GPD and maximum likelihood method to under the laws and calculate the reappearance period values of heavy precipitation in Tibet. The results indicate that the daily precipitation of 28 stations in Tibet basically conforms to the model, and the theoretical frequency and the measured frequency are basically consistent. According to the spatial distribution of precipitation maximum value, the extreme values of Shigatse and Lhasa had large fluctuations, and the probability of record-breaking precipitation events was small. Precipitation extremes in the western part of Naqu region were relatively small, and the probability of record-breaking precipitation events was relatively high. The peak value of precipitation extremes in the flood season in Tibet generally showed a decreasing law from southeast to northwest, and the extreme value of the flood season reappeared in the southeast region was about twice that of the northwest region. The maximum rainfall in most areas will exceed 20mm in the next 5-10 years, and the maximum rainfall in Shigatse will reach 52.7 mm. After 15 years of recurrence in various regions, the peak rainfall growth in the flood season has become very slow.