Supply forecast of animal product in Sichuan Province based on GM Model

2018 4th International Conference on Environmental Science and Material Application

生态环境科学;材料科学

Feng, Huiling^1 ; Luo, Luxi^1 ; Chen, Wenkuan^1 ; Tian, Shuangqing^1 ; Liu, Haoxiang^2

School of Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, China^1

School of Landscape Architecturet, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, China^2

关键词: Animal products;    GM (1 , 1) model;    Grey system theory;    Present situation;    Regional differences;    Science and Technology;    Sichuan province;    Supply sides;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/252/4/042019/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/252/4/042019

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The research on the present situation and forecast of the supply of animal products in Sichuan Province is conducive to accelerating the agricultural supply-side structural reform and guaranteeing the effective supply of agricultural products. In this paper, on the basis of analyzing the situation of animal products in the past 10 years in Sichuan Province, using the Grey System Theory, and adopting GM (1, 1) Model, the supply of animal products in Sichuan Province in the next 10 years is forecast, through which the result shows that the model is highly precise and reliable. It concludes that, in the next 10 years, the output of animal products in Sichuan Province will increase in general year by year, except for somewhat decrease in that of herbivorous animals like cattle, sheep and rabbits in a few cities and regions, as regional difference exists. In the future, guidance provided for the development of husbandry should be based on the guarantee of products supply, change of consumers' concept and increase of investment in science and technology, in order to promote the agricultural supply-side structural reform.