Prediction and analysis of generation installed capacity in China

4th International Conference on Advances in Energy Resources and Environment Engineering

能源学;生态环境科学

Chen, Lin^1 ; Liu, Zhibin^1 ; Ma, Nannan^1

School of Science, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan

610500, China^1

关键词: Electricity source;    Electricity supply;    Grey system theory;    Installed capacity;    Prediction and analysis;    Renewable electricity;    Sources of energy;    Wind power capacity;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/237/6/062020/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/237/6/062020

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Electricity is one of the most important sources of energy. Generation installed capacity mainly include thermal power, hydroelectricity, nuclear power and wind power capacity. Renewable electricity helps relieve pressure of electricity supply and further sustainable development could be achieved. In this paper, a novel grey model with the fractional order accumulation is put forward, which is abbreviated as FOGM(1,1), based on the grey system theory, which is to accurately predict the generation installed capacity and further make full use of the electricity sources. The case studies of predicting the generation installed capacity of China form 2000 to 2015, and the FOPGM(1,1) was calibrated. Finally the FOPGM(1,1) model is used to forecast the generation installed capacity of China from 2016 to 2020 and analyze the trend of development for generation installed capacity.