Parametric model for predicting the reliability of heat power equipment of TPP

3rd International Scientific and Technical Conference “Energy Systems”

Sultanov, M.M.^1 ; Truhanov, V.M.^1 ; Gorban, Yu A^2

Department of Thermal Engineering and Heat Engineering, Branch Moscow Power Engineering Institute Volzhsky, Lenina Ave.69, Volzhskij

404110, Russia^1

Department of Automation of Technological Processes and Production, Branch Mos-cow Power Engineering Institute Volzhsky, Lenina Ave.69, Volzhskij

404110, Russia^2

关键词: Economic values;    Estimates of parameters;    High reliability;    Multiple parameters;    Parametric modeling;    Reliability level;    Statistical datas;    Thermal power plants;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/552/1/012006/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/552/1/012006

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Forecasting and ensuring the required high reliability level of heat power plants (thermal power plants) at a stage of their creation and operation is an important problem of economic value. For the solution of this problem in the present article the task is to develop such mathematical models of forecasting of reliability at all stages of life cycle of a thermal power plant from designing before removal from operation. It would be possible to reduce costs of realization of concrete actions. Parametrical mathematical models of growth of reliability have been developed for the solution of an objective. In particular two-parametrical, three-parametrical and multiple parameter models of growth of reliability have been developed and presented. For calculation of estimates of parameters of distribution standard programs are offered. All developed mathematical models of forecasting of reliability level are based on use of the statistical data obtained in the course of tests or operation of products analogs. Change of reliability level on five stages of life cycle of the power equipment of a thermal power plant is graphically shown in the article.