A game-theoretic model to select suitable rubber policy

International Conference on Materials Research and Innovation

Paoprasert, N.^1^2 ; Varasirikul, T.^1^2 ; Pichitlamken, J.^1^2

Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, Thailand^1

Business Process Improvement, Feed Ingredient Trading Business Group, Charoen Pokphand Foods PCL, Bangkok, Thailand^2

关键词: Game-theoretic;    Game-theoretic model;    Governmental policies;    Modelling techniques;    Rubber consumption;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/526/1/012043/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/526/1/012043

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

In this study, we used a game theoretic modelling technique to analyze the governmental policies by collecting natural rubber related data to create a model in order to select the policies that suit Thai rubber's stakeholders. After the model has been created, we used sensitivity analysis to capture the uncertainties of parameters such as the success probabilities of the policies and the rubber price. The results from the game theoretic model show that there are two policies that should be selected by the government which is the policies that support the increase of natural rubber consumption by 10%-15%. However, in order for the government to optimally select these policies, the success rate of the policies needs to be at least 30%. Otherwise, none of the policies should be selected. Regarding the policy to support Tier-1 entrepreneurs, since the increase in demand by implementing this kind of policy is fairly small, the policy should not be chosen. The policy for Tier-2 companies owned by the local farmers should be supported when the chance of selling the products is more than 35%.