Modelling and economic risk estimation for accidents in underground building construction and exploitation

21st International Scientific Conference on Advanced in Civil Engineering "Construction - The Formation of Living Environment"

土木建筑工程

Petrov, I.V.^1,2 ; Vartanov, S.A.^1,2,3

NRU MSUCE, Underground Space Exploitation Base Department, Yaroslavskoye Shosse 26, Moscow

129337, Russia^1

FSBoS Melnikov Research Institute of Comprehensive Exploitation of Mineral Resources of the RAS, Kryukovskiy Tupik, 4, Moscow

111020, Russia^2

MSU, Moscow School of Economics, Econometrics and Mathematical Methods of Economics Department, Ulitsa Leninskiye Gory, 1, Moscow

119192, Russia^3

关键词: Analytical expressions;    Building construction;    Economic characteristics;    Game-theoretic model;    Geophysical parameters;    Numerical estimation;    Risk of accidents;    Underground mining;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/365/4/042076/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/365/4/042076

学科分类：土木及结构工程学

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

In order to estimate the probability of anthropogenic accidents during the process of underground works and the corresponding damage, the mathematical model of accident risk should include not only technological and geophysical parameters of the object of interest, but also level of labor discipline of workers and the internal technological rules of the enterprise. In our previous works we developed a game-theoretic model of underground mining enterprises. But the part of the model concerning the risk of accident and the corresponding damage was assumed "exogenous", and was previously never discussed. In this paper we develop the models of underground accidents emergence and damage caused by them, basing of the classic Ruin theory (Cramer-Lundberg model of Poisson risk process). As a result of our research we develop the analytical expressions allowing to give a numerical assessment to technical and economic characteristics of the enterprise working in especially dangerous conditions. We found the analytical expressions which give a numerical estimation of possible damage from accidents of anthropogenic nature, depending on different technologic strategies of the enterprise and on the workers' behavior.