Reliability Analysis of Sea Cliff Slope Stability by Point Estimate Method

3rd World Multidisciplinary Civil Engineering, Architecture, Urban Planning Symposium

土木建筑工程;文学

Przewlocki, Jaroslaw^1 ; Zabuski, Leslaw^2 ; Winkelmann, Karol^3

Gdask University of Technology, Faculty of Architecture, Narutowicza 11/12, Gdask

80-233, Poland^1

Institute of Hydro-Engineering, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kocierska 7, Gdask

80-328, Poland^2

Gdask University of Technology, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Narutowicza 11/12, Gdask

80-233, Poland^3

关键词: Geological structures;    Monte Carlo simulation methods;    Number of samples;    Point estimate method;    Probability of failure;    Reliability Index;    Standard deviation;    Statistical parameters;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/471/4/042003/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/471/4/042003

学科分类：土木及结构工程学

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The paper presents a reliability analysis of a sea cliff slope. The cliff, located in Jastrzbia Góra, is characterised by a complicated geological structure. Although currently stable, it is in fact close to the limit state. The objective of this paper is to present the point estimate method (PEM) of determining the mean value and standard deviation of the safety factor of the slope. Assuming its normal distribution, these statistical parameters make it possible to determine the probability of failure pf and the reliability index β. In order to reduce the number of random variables, a sensitivity analysis was performed. The results were verified by the Monte Carlo simulation method. The main advantage of this approach is to minimize the number of sample calculations required to obtain estimators of the parameters investigated.