외환위기가 실업자의 직업이행에 미치는 영향 -외환위기 전후의 퇴직 후 재취업 기간과 재취업 시 직장 재직기간에 대한 분석-

미취업기간;생존기간분석;외환위기;실업;재취업;한국노동패널;330

사회과학대학 경제학부 ;

University:서울대학교 대학원

关键词: 미취업기간;    생존기간분석;    외환위기;    실업;    재취업;    한국노동패널;    330;   

Others  :  http://s-space.snu.ac.kr/bitstream/10371/134569/1/000000008713.pdf

美国|英语

来源: Seoul National University Open Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study estimates each survivor function of non-employment status and tenure status after reemployment by adopting Kaplan-Meier non-parametric survivor function estimator and using all available KLIPS data so far (from 1st to 11th year’s data set). Those estimations were conducted sorted by year of resignation or reemployment and level of education and job position(wether one has full-time job or not) to verify heterogeneous effect of Late 1990;;s financial crisis in Korea on each group. As a result of the analysis for duration of non-employment, the tendency of escaping from non-employment had been slowdown in financial crisis period. In addition, a tendency has been verified that the group of people already in long term non-employment in financial crisis period are more likely to stay in non-employment status. However, this shock of financial crisis seemed not to last long to be shown by estimates after year 2000 feature fast and robust tendency of escaping from non-employment.Besides, I found that the gap of non-employment duration among the groups of different level of education and job position has gone up during the financial crisis period. As a parallel research with former one, the survivor function estimates for tenure after reemployment have shown that tendency of escaping from tenure status has been accelerated in financial crisis time while the effects of this shock have been recovered soon. And the estimates of groups divided by academic level and job position showed distinctive differences.To verify the features which affect on duration of non-employment, I conducted several regressions based on Cox proportional hazard model to get results that the hazard rate of escaping from non-employment status is lower as much as 18.1 % than that of year 2000. And as a result from the analysis by differences in differences method, the group of college graduates and full-time job workers had less shock compared with the counterpart groups. From the result form Cox regression for tenure after reemployment, did I find that the hazard rate of caseswhich are in financial crisis time to escape from tenure status is higher as much as 29.5% than that of the cases in after year 2000. Also the group of people who experienced non-employment before the relevant employment marked 14.6% as higher hazard rate than that of those who experienced their non-employment time after year 2000. It also turned out that longer persist in non-employment status relates shorter tenure after reemployment.