한국관광 해외광고가 방한 관광객에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

한국관광 해외광고;한국방문 순수 관광객;물가;환율;유가;회귀분석;벡터자기회귀(VAR) 모델;Korea Tourism Global Advertising;Pure Foreign Tourists Visiting Korea;CPI;Exchange Rate;Oil Price;Regression Analysis;VAR Model;352

행정대학원 공기업정책학과 ;

University:서울대학교 대학원

关键词: 한국관광 해외광고;    한국방문 순수 관광객;    물가;    환율;    유가;    회귀분석;    벡터자기회귀(VAR) 모델;    Korea Tourism Global Advertising;    Pure Foreign Tourists Visiting Korea;    CPI;    Exchange Rate;    Oil Price;    Regression Analysis;    VAR Model;    352;   

Others  :  http://s-space.snu.ac.kr/bitstream/10371/130585/1/000000021176.pdf

美国|英语

来源: Seoul National University Open Repository

【 摘 要 】

The purpose of this study is to verify the effect of Korea tourism global advertising on pure foreign tourists visiting Korea. Unlike previous studies, the present study is based on the number of pure foreign tourists visiting Korea from 2010 to 2013 for more precise analysis. This study used the monthly time series data extracted from the number of pure foreign tourists by theKorea Tourism Organization (KTO) as the dependent variable. And the monthly time series data of Korea tourism global advertising, won exchange rates for the U.S. dollar, consumer price level measured by Korea;;s consumer price index(CPI), and international oil price measured by dollar price of Dubai oil were used as the independent variables.Results of this study are as follows. First, the multiple regression analysis showed that Korea tourism global advertising, which is a variable most concerned with in this study, has a positive correlation with the number of pure foreign tourists visiting Korea at the significance level of 10%, increasing the number of foreign tourists visiting Korea(β=.025, t=1.77, p<0.1). The autocorrelation vector(VAR) model analysis also showed that the time difference of t-1 has a statistically significant impact on the number of pure foreign tourists visiting Korea at the significance level of 5%(β=.042, Z=2.35, p<0.05). However, the time difference of t-2 has no statistically significant impact on the number of pure foreign tourists visiting Korea.Second, the multiple regression analysis andvector autocorrelation (VAR) model analysis showed that there is no statistically significant correlation between the number of pure foreign tourists visiting Korea and the won exchange rates for the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, respectively.Third, the consumer price, measured by Korea;;s consumer price index(CPI), showed no significant effect on the number of pure foreign tourists visiting Korea during the period from 2010 to 2013 according to the regression analysis. However, the autocorrelation vector(VAR) model revealed that the time difference of t-1 and t-2has a statistically significant positive correlation with the number of pure foreign tourists visiting Korea at the 5% significance level.Fourth, the regression analysis indicates that there is no statistically significant correlation between the number of pure foreign tourists visiting Korea and the international oil prices measured by monthly dollar price of Dubai oil. However, VAR model analysis showed that the time difference of t-2 has a statistically significant negative correlation with the number of pure foreign tourists visiting Korea at the significance level of 5%.Fifth, in the case of the dummy variable to measure the effect of the music video ;;Gangnam Style;; by singer Psy, it was estimated that there is no statistically significant relationship with the number of international tourists visiting Korea.Sixth, the dummy variable to verify the seasonal effects of the number of foreign tourists visiting Korea, showed that much more foreign tourists visited Korea in February, March, April, June, July, August, October and December when compared to the standard month of January. This means that the number of foreign tourists visiting Korea appears to have the seasonal effects.