Awakening a sleeping giant: The riddle of Latino political participation

Latinos;political participation;Social sciences

Butterfield, Tara Lee ; Alvarez, R. Michael

University:California Institute of Technology

Department:Humanities and Social Sciences

关键词: Latinos;    political participation;    Social sciences;   

Others  :  https://thesis.library.caltech.edu/8163/1/Butterfield%202001.pdf

美国|英语

来源: Caltech THESIS

【 摘 要 】

For some time now, the Latino voice has been gradually gaining strength inAmerican politics, particularly in such states as California, Florida, Illinois, NewYork, and Texas, where large numbers of Latino immigrants have settled andlarge numbers of electoral votes are at stake. Yet the issues public officials inthese states espouse and the laws they enact often do not coincide with theinterests and preferences of Latinos. The fact that Latinos in California andelsewhere have not been able to influence the political agenda in a way that iscommensurate with their numbers may reflect their failure to participate fully inthe political process by first registering to vote and then consistently turning outon election day to cast their ballots.

To understand Latino voting behavior, I first examine Latino politicalparticipation in California during the ten general elections of the 1980s and1990s, seeking to understand what percentage of the eligible Latino populationregisters to vote, with what political party they register, how many registeredLatinos to go the polls on election day, and what factors might increase theirparticipation in politics. To ensure that my findings are not unique to California, Ialso consider Latino voter registration and turnout in Texas for the five generalelections of the 1990s and compare these results with my California findings.

I offer a new approach to studying Latino political participation in which Irely on county-level aggregate data, rather than on individual survey data, and employ the ecological inference method of generalized bounds. I calculate andcompare Latino and white voting-age populations, registration rates, turnoutrates, and party affiliation rates for California's fifty-eight counties. Then, in asecondary grouped logit analysis, I consider the factors that influence theseLatino and white registration, turnout, and party affiliation rates.

I find that California Latinos register and turn out at substantially lowerrates than do whites and that these rates are more volatile than those of whites. Ifind that Latino registration is motivated predominantly by age and education,with older and more educated Latinos being more likely to register. Motor voterlegislation, which was passed to ease and simplify the registration process, hasnot encouraged Latino registration . I find that turnout among California's Latinovoters is influenced primarily by issues, income, educational attainment, and thesize of the Spanish-speaking communities in which they reside. Althoughlanguage skills may be an obstacle to political participation for an individual, thenumber of Spanish-speaking households in a community does not encourage ordiscourage registration but may encourage turnout, suggesting that cultural andlinguistic assimilation may not be the entire answer.

With regard to party identification, I find that Democrats can expect asteady Latino political identification rate between 50 and 60 percent, whileRepublicans attract 20 to 30 percent of Latino registrants. I find that educationand income are the dominant factors in determining Latino political partyidentification, which appears to be no more volatile than that of the largerelectorate.

Next, when I consider registration and turnout in Texas, I find that Latinoregistration rates are nearly equal to those of whites but that Texas Latinoturnout rates are volatile and substantially lower than those of whites.

Low turnout rates among Latinos and the volatility of these rates mayexplain why Latinos in California and Texas have had little influence on thepolitical agenda even though their numbers are large and increasing. Simply put,the voices of Latinos are little heard in the halls of government because they donot turn out consistently to cast their votes on election day.

While these findings suggest that there may not be any short-term orquick fixes to Latino participation, they also suggest that Latinos should beencouraged to participate more fully in the political process and that additionaleducation may be one means of achieving this goal. Candidates should speakmore directly to the issues that concern Latinos. Political parties should viewLatinos as crossover voters rather than as potential converts. In other words, ifLatinos were "a sleeping giant," they may now be a still-drowsy leviathan waitingto be wooed by either party's persuasive political messages and relevant issues.