Uncertainty and Business Cycles Asymmetries

Asymmetric Business Cycles;Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Sepulveda Umanzor, Jean Paul ; John Lapp, Committee Member,Douglas K. Pearce, Committee Member,Matthew Holt, Committee Member,John J. Seater, Committee Chair,Sepulveda Umanzor, Jean Paul ; John Lapp ; Committee Member ; Douglas K. Pearce ; Committee Member ; Matthew Holt ; Committee Member ; John J. Seater ; Committee Chair

University:North Carolina State University

关键词: Asymmetric Business Cycles;    Macroeconomic Uncertainty;   

Others  :  https://repository.lib.ncsu.edu/bitstream/handle/1840.16/4506/etd.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

美国|英语

来源: null

【 摘 要 】

In this dissertation I investigate how macroeconomic uncertainty behaves during the business cycle, and then I present a model that can reproduce what I find in the data.I first present evidence, from surveys of expectations, that indicates that macroeconomic uncertainty is higher during expected slowdowns than during expected expansions in real GDP.I then, try to explain this theoretically. To do that, I show that the standard stochastic growth model can be expanded to include an endogenous depreciation rate, allowing it to deliver the findings previously discussed. The model generates asymmetric output fluctuations in response to symmetric productivity shocks. Business cycle asymmetries then reproduce the pattern of uncertainty described in the empirical chapter.