Evaluating the Rationality of The Wall Street Journal's Panel of Economists

rational expectations;Wall Street Journal;economic forecasting;Lamont hypothesis

Houck, Adam Christopher ; Douglas Pearce, Committee Chair,John Lapp, Committee Member,John Monahan, Committee Member,Houck, Adam Christopher ; Douglas Pearce ; Committee Chair ; John Lapp ; Committee Member ; John Monahan ; Committee Member

University:North Carolina State University

关键词: rational expectations;    Wall Street Journal;    economic forecasting;    Lamont hypothesis;   

Others  :  https://repository.lib.ncsu.edu/bitstream/handle/1840.16/2644/etd.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

美国|英语

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【 摘 要 】

This paper will explore a methodology that will examine the difference between average and individual forecasts, concentrating on whether individual Wall Street Journal forecasters are unbiased and efficient.This result is important because the past literature has examined the accuracy of average forecasts, not individuals.In addition, a brief evaluation of Lamont's (2002) hypothesis will follow.Lamont determined that as forecasters become older and more established, in many instances deviations from the consensus forecast grew with time.The method adopted will allow for the testing of whether individual forecasts are unbiased and rational, telling more about how individuals, not averages, behave in broader contexts.