Modern Portfolio Theory Applied to Electricity Resource Planning

Modern portfolio theory;Electricity resource planning;Efficient frontier;Least-cost-variance methodology

Beltran, Hector A. ; Overbye ; Thomas J.

关键词: Modern portfolio theory;    Electricity resource planning;    Efficient frontier;    Least-cost-variance methodology;   

Others  :  https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/11970/3_Beltran_Hector.pdf?sequence=5&isAllowed=y

美国|英语

来源: The Illinois Digital Environment for Access to Learning and Scholarship

【 摘 要 】

To meet electricity demand, electric utilities develop growth strategies forgeneration, transmission, and distributions systems. For a long time thosestrategies have been developed by applying least-cost methodology, in which thecheapest stand-alone resources are simply added, instead of analyzing completeportfolios. As a consequence, least-cost methodology is biased in favor of fossilfuel-based technologies, completely ignoring the benefits of adding non-fossilfuel technologies to generation portfolios, especially renewable energies. For thisreason, this thesis introduces modern portfolio theory (MPT) to gain a moreprofound insight into a generation portfolio’s performance using generation costand risk metrics. We discuss all necessary assumptions and modifications to thisfinance technique for its application within power systems planning, and wepresent a real case of analysis. Finally, the results of this thesis are summarized,pointing out the main benefits and the scope of this new tool in the context ofelectricity generation planning.