Juvenile survival is among the most important demographic parameters driving population dynamics in birds.However, because first-year (i.e. 1-year-old) migratory passerines are thought to return to breed at great distances from their natal location, the factors that influence first-year survival have not been thoroughly investigated. To examine the factors that affect first-year survival, I determined the distribution of natal dispersal distances in Prothonotary Warblers (Protonotaria citrea) breeding within a nest box study system covering a large area. Surveys outside the nest box study system (up to 30 km in all directions) supported the legitimacy of the dispersal pattern calculated from the nest box study. By incorporating natal dispersal distance into a multi-state model framework, I accounted for the potential confounding effect of dispersal distance on recapture probabilities. Using this model framework, I investigated the effects of season, presence of a cowbird nestmate, brood size, and nestling body condition on the first-year survival probabilities. To date, this is the first study to document that both fledging date and the presence of a cowbird nestmate affect first-year survival in a migratory songbird.
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Natal dispersal and first-year survival in a neotropical migratory songbird