Modeling the technical means to produce nuclear weapons for providing accurate decision-making timetables

Nuclear;Nonproliferation;Modeling;Fuel cycle;Nuclear weapons

Duchene, Matthew ; Axford ; Roy A.

关键词: Nuclear;    Nonproliferation;    Modeling;    Fuel cycle;    Nuclear weapons;   

Others  :  https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/30965/Duchene_Matthew.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

美国|英语

来源: The Illinois Digital Environment for Access to Learning and Scholarship

【 摘 要 】

Government agencies, non-government organizations and academic institutions that focus on nuclear nonproliferation have demonstrated a limited capability to make comprehensive assessments of how far along a state is in the proliferation process. This deficiency exists despite the need to improve programmatic assessments of states that likely pose a risk of developing nuclear weapons. Modeling can help the end-user estimate the probable time required for a given state to complete a nuclear weapons program. This is highly attractive feature for policy makers who – with more accurate assessments – can make informed decisions.For any given state it is possible to use information on that state’s industrial strength, educational strength, and previous experiences with nuclear fuel cycle technology to assess that state’s capabilities and estimate a timeframe for that state to complete a nuclear weapons program. This body of research designates a governing equation for the model, discusses the technical attributes that are required for every nuclear weapons program, and discusses the process for designating values to each process variable. Beneficial applications for using this particular model and its limitations are also demonstrated and discussed.