Using avalanche statistics to forecast failure in models of earthquake faults and magnets

avalanches;earthquakes;magnets;earthquake prediction;correlations;Failure;random field Ising model

Brinkman, Braden

关键词: avalanches;    earthquakes;    magnets;    earthquake prediction;    correlations;    Failure;    random field Ising model;   

Others  :  https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/45611/Braden_Brinkman.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

美国|英语

来源: The Illinois Digital Environment for Access to Learning and Scholarship

【 摘 要 】

Avalanches - bursts of activity spanning a vast range of sizes - occur in a wide variety of dynamical systems, such as magnets, granular matter, earthquake faults, neuronal networks, and of course the classic example of snow flows on mountains. By studying the statistics of avalanche sizes, we can understand the response ofsuch systems to external driving forces, as well and their susceptibility to catastrophic failures. In this thesis,I present my work using models of avalanche statistics to study large failure avalanches. In particular, I use these avalanche models to explore statistical signals which can predict the likelihood of large earthquakes ina simple model of earthquake statistics. This analysis may also have applications to predicting seizures in neuronal networks. I also explore the eff ect that coupling has in models of disordered magnets which yieldgiant magnetization-reversal avalanches, which may have applications to predicting failures in power grid networks.