Decision support system for reservoir operation using analytical modeling results

Analytical reservoir operation rules;Decision support system;System of reservoirs in parallel;Effective forecast horizon

Zhao, Qiankun ; Cai ; Ximing

关键词: Analytical reservoir operation rules;    Decision support system;    System of reservoirs in parallel;    Effective forecast horizon;   

Others  :  https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/99526/ZHAO-THESIS-2017.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

美国|英语

来源: The Illinois Digital Environment for Access to Learning and Scholarship

【 摘 要 】

This study applies an analytical approach to solving reservoir operation problems, in particular, developing an algorithm to search for the optimal solution for a system of reservoirs in parallel, establishing procedures to determine the effective forecast horizon, and demonstrating the practical applications of the derived rules. Based on these, a decision support system for reservoir operation is developed. More specifically, the analytical work of this thesis includes two parts. In the first part, a multi-stage optimization model is set up to derive the properties of optimal release decisions for a system of reservoirs in parallel with a single demand site; following that an algorithm is developed using the analytical results. In the second part, the properties of the optimal solution for a single water supply reservoir under uncertain forecast are derived, and these properties are then used to develop criteria and procedures to determine the effective forecast horizon, which can inform reservoir managers in the actual use of inflow forecast. Finally, a prototype reservoir operation decision support system is developed based on the analytical results. This system is to illustrate the applications of analytically derived reservoir operation rules to guide real-world reservoir operations. Through the system, users can use a graphical user interface (GUI) to upload data, execute model, and visualize the results. As a conclusion, being different from most existing studies using numerical models, this thesis shows the capabilities of the analytical approaches in providing information for real-world reservoir operation problems.