Assessing growth preferences on the rural-urban fringe using a discrete choice model and spatial analysis methods

choice modeling;growth preferences;regional planning;stakeholder engagement;exurbia;random parameters logit;"Morans I";hotspot analysis;preference heterogeneity;spatial autocorrelation

Stamberger, Lorraine R. ; Ando, Amy, ; ,Stewart, William ; van Riper ; Carena

关键词: choice modeling;    growth preferences;    regional planning;    stakeholder engagement;    exurbia;    random parameters logit;    "Morans I";    hotspot analysis;    preference heterogeneity;    spatial autocorrelation;   

Others  :  https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/bitstream/handle/2142/102445/STAMBERGER-THESIS-2018.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

美国|英语

来源: The Illinois Digital Environment for Access to Learning and Scholarship

【 摘 要 】

Landscapes on the rural-urban fringe are experiencing change and diversification, yet the preferences of local residents for how these landscapes should develop is largely overlooked. My thesis contributes to a growing body of research that explores residents’ preferences for landscape change through two specific aims: (1) understand how preferences for growth are influenced by multiple landscape-scale attributes, and (2) explore how these preferences are distributed across spatial scales. My research takes place in two case study sites–Will County, Illinois and Jasper County, Iowa–characterized as mixed-use landscapes with strong agrarian roots, close proximity to large metropolitan centers, and conservation practices. I draw from residential survey data to first determine how the impacts of land use and economic conditions influence respondent choices for future growth scenarios using a discrete choice model that includes six attributes: residential growth, protected grasslands, distance to recreation, agriculture, bison presence, and unemployment. Next, using only the data collected from respondents in Will County, I conducted posterior spatial tests to examine the spatial dependence of preferences for these attributes at the individual household level. Global and local spatial methods were applied together to understand overarching trends in spatial dependence and regional clustering of preferences. My results showed that preferences varied within the sample and across spatial scales. My research on the rural-urban fringe extends the geographic scope of the choice modeling literature, and I look beyond preferences for a particular project or policy by assessing landscape-scale attributes with implications for planning at a broader regional scale. At the rural-urban fringe where change is inevitable, I help to pave the way for greater understanding of stakeholder preferences and a more democratized planning process.