This thesis analyses the key developments in foreign trade for Ukraine, Russia, Poland, Lithuania, Belarus and Moldova on a comparative basis between 1996 and 2006. It examines trade developments and restructuring with the region’s two major trade blocs: the European Union (EU) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Using dependable trade models pioneered by Béla Belassa and Herbert Grubel and Peter J. Lloyd, the analyses involve revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and intra-industry trade (IIT) to determine the extent to which structural changes have or have not occurred, which domestic industries are becoming more competitive and the degree of differentiation present. The reason for choosing the aforementioned measurement indices is straightforward. On one hand, RCA identifies those industries that have become relatively more competitive, and attempts to assess whether a given industry enjoys a comparative advantage in production by means of measuring exports. On the other hand, IIT supposes the opposite of comparative advantage theory, and affirms that differences between countries are not the only rationale for trade, because of the presence of increasing returns in scale economies. Thus, it examines the simultaneous import and export of identical, similar or differentiated products in the same industry often between similar countries. Although both indices are usually considered alternatives to each other, there is good reason to see them as complementary. The results of both indices, therefore, provide critical information from which to assess the degree of trade restructuring.
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Foreign trade developments in Ukraine, Russia, Poland, Lithuania, Belarus & Moldova (1996-2006)
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