Essays in macroeconomics and fiscal policy

HB Economic Theory;HJ Public Finance

Ricci, Mattia ; Leith, Campbell

University:University of Glasgow

Department:Adam Smith Business School

关键词: Laffer curve, optimal policy, fiscal sustainability, fiscal limit, fiscalconsolidations, DSGE model, Bayesian estimation, fiscal federalism, Scottish economy, UK. economy;   

Others  :  http://theses.gla.ac.uk/73043/1/2019RicciMPhD.pdf

来源: University of Glasgow

【 摘 要 】

This thesis consists of three chapters. The first chapter contributes to the literature on the Laffer curve as a means of measuring the sustainability of public finances. In particular, it proposes to construct Laffer Curves via policy experiments where fiscal policy is set optimally and fiscal instruments are jointly varied along the transition to steady-state. This relation is labelled as an ‘optimal Laffer curve’. It is shown that the tax revenue and welfare gains relative to the ‘quasi-static’ policy experiments examined by the previous literature are dramatic. The second and the third chapters are instead dedicated to developing and estimating a DSGE model of the Scottish economy and the rest of the UK. The second chapter reviews the literature of DSGE models developed in academia and central banks in recent years, and outlines our model. In the third chapter, the model is then estimated and its quantitative implications are explored.