Statistical models for the long-term monitoring of songbird populations: a Bayesian analysis of constant effort sites and ring-recovery data

Acrocephalus schoenobaenus;Acrocephalus scirpaceus;Bird populations--Mathematical models;Bird populations--Statistical methods;Ornithology--Methodology;Bayesian statistical decision theory;Acrocephalus schoenobaenus;Acrocephalus scirpaceus;Bird populations--Mathematical models;Bird populations--Statistical methods;Ornithology--Methodology;Bayesian statistical decision theory

Cave, Vanessa M. ; King, Ruth ; King, Ruth

University:University of St Andrews

Department:Mathematics & Statistics (School of)

关键词: Acrocephalus schoenobaenus;    Acrocephalus scirpaceus;    Bird populations--Mathematical models;    Bird populations--Statistical methods;    Ornithology--Methodology;    Bayesian statistical decision theory;    Acrocephalus schoenobaenus;    Acrocephalus scirpaceus;    Bird populations--Mathematical models;    Bird populations--Statistical methods;    Ornithology--Methodology;    Bayesian statistical decision theory;   

Others  :  https://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/10023/885/Vanessa%20Cave%20PhD%20thesis.PDF?sequence=6&isAllowed=y

来源: DR-NTU

【 摘 要 】

To underpin and improve advice given to government and other interested partieson the state of Britain’s common songbird populations, new models foranalysing ecological data are developed in this thesis. These models use datafrom the British Trust for Ornithology’s Constant Effort Sites (CES) scheme,an annual bird-ringing programme in which catch effort is standardised. Datafrom the CES scheme are routinely used to index abundance and productivity,and to a lesser extent estimate adult survival rates. However, two features ofthe CES data that complicate analysis were previously inadequately addressed,namely the presence in the catch of “transient” birds not associated with thelocal population, and the sporadic failure in the constancy of effort assumptionarising from the absence of within-year catch data. The current methodologyis extended, with efficient Bayesian models developed for each of these demographicparameters that account for both of these data nuances, and from whichreliable and usefully precise estimates are obtained.Of increasing interest is the relationship between abundance and the underlyingvital rates, an understanding of which facilitates effective conservation.CES data are particularly amenable to an integrated approach to populationmodelling, providing a combination of demographic information from a singlesource. Such an integrated approach is developed here, employing Bayesianmethodology and a simple population model to unite abundance, productivityand survival within a consistent framework. Independent data from ring-recoveriesprovide additional information on adult and juvenile survival rates.Specific advantages of this new integrated approach are identified, among whichis the ability to determine juvenile survival accurately, disentangle the probabilitiesof survival and permanent emigration, and to obtain estimates of totalseasonal productivity.The methodologies developed in this thesis are applied to CES data from SedgeWarbler, Acrocephalus schoenobaenus, and Reed Warbler, A. scirpaceus.