Predicting the Ecological and Social Suitability of Black Bear Habitat in Michigan's Lower Peninsula

Black Bear;Black Bear Habitats in Michigan;Black Bear Habitats in Michigan"s Lower Peninsula;School of Natural Resources and Environment

Carter, NeilMyers, Phillips ;

University of Michigan

关键词: Black Bear;    Black Bear Habitats in Michigan;    Black Bear Habitats in Michigan";    s Lower Peninsula;    School of Natural Resources and Environment;   

Others  :  https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/55326/nhcarter_thesis_final_edit.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

瑞士|英语

来源: The Illinois Digital Environment for Access to Learning and Scholarship

【 摘 要 】

AbstractBlack bear (Ursus americanus) populations in Michigan’s Northern Lower Peninsula (NLP) areobserved to be increasing and expanding their geographic extent, as indicated by trends in bearnuisance reports, harvest reports, and sightings. I modeled bear habitat selection in the NLPusing observed telemetry locations and 12 environmental variables. I used bear telemetrylocations from 20 males and 35 females that were collected by the Michigan Department ofNatural Resources throughout the NLP from 1992 to 2000. I chose Bayesian discrete choicehierarchical models to model bear selection of grid cells at three different spatial resolutions – 3km, 2 km, and 1 km. I used separate models for males and females because of their differenthabitat requirements and behavior. The male 3km model and female 2km model best fit the dataand were used to identify existing suitable habitat in the NLP and also used to predict thesuitability of areas in the entire Lower Peninsula for potential bear range expansion. The resultsof applying the models illustrate a paucity of suitable bear habitat in the Southern LowerPeninsula (SLP). However, the results also indicate the potential for wildlife managementagencies to develop a bear habitat network in the LP. In addition, I integrated surveyinformation from the Social Carrying Capacity (SCC) project with the GIS-based habitatprediction models to illuminate the relationships between human behavior and attitudesregarding bears and suitable bear habitat in Michigan’s Lower Peninsula. This analysis wasconducted within two bear-density regions identified by researchers at Michigan’s Department ofNatural Resources (Zone B and Zone C) where bear populations and human development haverecently been expanding. Overall, the variables I chose to evaluate describe respondentdemography as well as attitudes toward bear presence and bear-management policies. Usingthese variables, I identified potential conflict regions as places with more intolerant people andxsuitable bear habitat. The results indicated no significant relationship between variables thatrepresented attitudes towards bears and bear management policies with suitable bear habitat.However, the conflict region maps indicated that Zone C had approximately more than twice asmuch area where potential bear/human conflict can occur than in Zone B. Furthermore, there isno denying that the landscape is considerably different between the two zones and thus residentsin Zone C may respond more unpredictably than residents in Zone B to current methods theMDNR employs to handle nuisance bears. The results from this research will enable theMichigan Department of Natural Resources to refine their future bear harvest strategies anddevelop regionally specific bear management plans.