Quantifying Human Mobility Using The Longest Distance Traveled

Human Mobility;Epidemiology

Huang, Yanjie

Johns Hopkins University

关键词: Human Mobility;    Epidemiology;   

Others  :  https://jscholarship.library.jhu.edu/bitstream/handle/1774.2/37290/HUANG-THESIS-2014.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

瑞士|英语

来源: JOHNS HOPKINS DSpace Repository

【 摘 要 】

Background: Population movement has a dramatic impact on infectious disease epidemiology. Human mobility data is increasingly being used to model pathogen dispersion, but it is difficult to study long-distance movement of humans.Objectives: Develop models of long-distance human travel based on questionnaire data describing the longest distance traveled by someone in a household over one week, one month, 6 months, and 1 year.Methods and Analysis: Mathematical models were generated based on the daily travel and N-day routine hypotheses. The parameters were estimated through maximum likelihood method, and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) was used to assess the goodness of fit.Results and Conclusions: Household location was an important factor shaping human mobility. A routine-travel cycle consisting of 11-13 days provided the best fit (BIC = 29802). Daily human movement and human movement overall may be best explained by routines that are repeated biweekly or perhaps longer.