Bullets & Booze: Alcohol Outlet Access and Violent Crime in Baltimore City, MD

alcohol;alcohol policy;alcohol outlet density;violence;spatial access;Social & Behavioral Sciences

Trangenstein, Pamela JWebster, Daniel W. ;

Johns Hopkins University

关键词: alcohol;    alcohol policy;    alcohol outlet density;    violence;    spatial access;    Social & Behavioral Sciences;   

Others  :  https://jscholarship.library.jhu.edu/bitstream/handle/1774.2/59190/TRANGENSTEIN-DISSERTATION-2018.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

瑞士|英语

来源: JOHNS HOPKINS DSpace Repository

【 摘 要 】

Background: The association between alcohol outlets and violent crime is well-established. However, the literature contains conflicting findings, which this dissertation assumes could be the result of poor measurement. It compares three measurement methods – counts, proximity, and spatial access – to determine how to best quantify alcohol outlet access and then uses the method that performs the best to determine the association between alcohol outlets and violent crime in Baltimore, MD. Lastly, this dissertation translates these findings for policy discussions using cost-effectiveness analysis to determine the number of violent crimes one could prevent, money one could save, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) one could preserve with alcohol outlet density zoning policies.Methods: Chapter 3 tests a total of 32 models, using negative binomial regression for count outcomes and linear regression for continuous outcomes. Choropleth maps and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) guided determination of which model yielded the best fit for the data. Chapter 4 uses the spatial access methods from chapter 3 and linear regression to measure the association between alcohol outlet access and violent crime exposure in Baltimore, MD. Chapter 5 uses cost-effectiveness analysis based on the measure of association from Chapter 3.Results: Greater alcohol outlet access was consistently associated with more violent crime. Spatial access measures contained the most statistical and conceptual advantages. Each 10% increase in access to alcohol outlets was associated with a 4.2% increase in exposure to violent crime. A 10% increase in access to off-premise and LBD-7 outlets, which are combined off- and on-premise licensed outlets, had a greater association with violent crime than access to on-premise outlets. Removing both the liquor stores in residential zones and the bars/taverns operating as liquor stores would prevent 781 violent crimes, save $57.6 million, and preserve 608 QALYs.Conclusion: Greater alcohol outlet access is associated with higher exposure to violent crime. Accurate measurement of the alcohol environment is important for scientific and policy discussions and should become part of routine public health surveillance.