Forecasting US inflation : Phillips curve, New Keynesian Phillips curve, or something else?

Inflation (Finance)--United States--Forecasting;Inflation (Finance)--United States--Mathematical models;Phillips curve

Kick, DaltonErsal, Eylem ;

University of Wisconsin--Whitewater

关键词: Inflation (Finance)--United States--Forecasting;    Inflation (Finance)--United States--Mathematical models;    Phillips curve;   

Others  :  https://minds.wisconsin.edu/bitstream/handle/1793/78471/Dalton%20Kick%20Thesis%20.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

瑞士|英语

来源: University of Wisconsin

【 摘 要 】

I utilize and compare several common inflation forecasting models, including traditional Phillips curve models and the New Keynesian Phillips curve, as well as several other time series models. I evaluate these models using RMSE over several forecast horizons, using three different measures of inflation: CPI inflation, PPI inflation, and GDP deflator inflation. I find that the theoretical Phillips curve models outperform other time series models, however, the performance is sensitive to the inflation measure used in estimation.