Impact Assessment of Construction Supply Chain Risk Changes on Project Time and Cost

Supply Chain Management;Risk Quantification;Automatic Detection Model;Economic Risk Impact;Environmental Risk Impact;Supply Chain Visibility;Industrial Projects;Dynamic Schedulling

Ahmed, Haniadvisor:Haas, carl ; affiliation1:Faculty of Engineering ; advisor:Hegazy, Tarek ; Haas, carl ; Hegazy, Tarek ;

University of Waterloo

关键词: Risk Quantification;    Economic Risk Impact;    Dynamic Schedulling;    Automatic Detection Model;    Supply Chain Visibility;    Industrial Projects;    Environmental Risk Impact;    Supply Chain Management;    Doctoral Thesis;   

Others  :  https://uwspace.uwaterloo.ca/bitstream/10012/12357/7/Ahmed_Hani.pdf

瑞士|英语

来源: UWSPACE Waterloo Institutional Repository

【 摘 要 】

The supply chain plays a key role in the construction industry. The importance of the ConstructionSupply Chain (CSC) is not less than that of the onsite construction phases. There are many riskfactors that influence the progress of a supply chain, and it is problematic when the probabilitiesand impacts of these risk factors are not well defined. While many approaches have been tried instudying SCs in construction, including risk effects, no study has addressed the dynamic updatingof the probability of risk events throughout the construction life cycle to effectively study theimpact on project time and cost. In order to reduce the impact of unseen risk factors that mayaffect the progress of any construction project, it is important to have tools to predict the influenceof major risk factors in advance. However, risk factors keep changing in their probabilities andimpacts along a project’s duration, and these changes will be more severe and have more influenceif recognized later rather than earlier, and will be harder and more costly to manage. This researchis aimed at helping to recognize the occurrence probabilities of risk factors during the early stagesof a project and during the project execution. It aims to build a simulation model that canautomatically detect risk factors in construction supply chain, track their changes, quantify theirimpact on project time and cost. The study starts by identifying typical risk issues related to a CSCthat will influence its state. Then, a model for quantifying the amount of risk by defining theprobabilities and impacts for each supply chain life cycle is proposed. The main focus of thisresearch is to build models that automatically detect and adjust changes in probabilities for themost severe risk factors associated with CSCs and then estimate their impact on cost and schedule.Four major steps will be completed in the proposed research. First, a real-world industrialconstruction project is identified. Second, a detailed study on the risk factors associated with thesupply chain of the given project is performed. Then, these risk factors are quantified according to the automated detection models for probability change and for studying the impact of each change.Finally, using a Monte Carlo Simulation tool (@Risk), the study will examine the impact of theserisk factors on an industrial project to offer a methodology for generating automated reports forproject managers to supply them with information on the impacts on the costs and schedules fortheir projects. The model offer stakeholders involved in a project with a better understanding ofthe changes in the risk so that throughout the project execution phase, they can take correctiveactions and tap off the negative impact of risk on project time and cost. This system can be usedfor supply chain planning and operation. The power of the system is its ability to respond to variouswhat-if scenarios. The newly introduced model is validated using a real-world industrial projectand the details of the project are documented.