The Economic Vote in New Zealand. An analysis of how macroeconomic conditions and perceptions of the economy affect voter behaviour

Economic Vote;New Zealand;political economy;macroeconomic;perceptions;voting;voter behaviour

Gardener, Luke Thomas ; Rudd, Christopher

University of Otago

关键词: Economic Vote;    New Zealand;    political economy;    macroeconomic;    perceptions;    voting;    voter behaviour;   

Others  :  https://ourarchive.otago.ac.nz/bitstream/10523/7038/1/Gardenerluke2016MA.pdf

美国|英语

来源: Otago University Research Archive

【 摘 要 】

A large body of research suggests the performance of the economy has a significant effect on voterbehaviour. However, there has been limited analysis of this issue in relation to New Zealand. Thisthesis seeks to correct this gap in the literature. It provides a review of the theoretical support foreconomic voting theory and discusses three key methods of analysis: vote functions, popularityfunctions, and the individual-level study. It undertakes a macro-popularity function analysis todetermine the effect of impartial macroeconomic conditions on voter behaviour in New Zealandbetween 1978 and 2015. This is followed by a micro-individual analysis that determines the effectperceptions of the economy have on voter behaviour in New Zealand between 2002 and 2014. Itfinds the evidence to support economic voting in New Zealand is mixed. The macro-analysis suggestsmacroeconomic conditions have a minimal to moderate effect on voter behaviour. The microanalysisfinds perceptions of the economy have a stronger effect, but that partisanship is a far moreimportant indicator of vote choice.