科技报告详细信息
China’s grain reserves, price support and import policies: Examining the medium-term market impacts of alternative policy scenarios
Annelies Deussi ; Marcel Adenaueri iOECD
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
关键词: agricultural policy reform;    stocks;    China;    partial equilibrium model;    TRQ;    cereals;   
DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/f813ed01-en
学科分类:社会科学、人文和艺术(综合)
来源: OECD iLibrary
PDF
【 摘 要 】

In 2016, the People’s Republic of China removed its support prices for maize and started destocking its large public reserves of maize. This paper investigates what would happen if China were to also eliminate its support prices for rice and wheat and reduce its public stocks of these two commodities. The analysis examines domestic and international market impacts over the next ten years by comparing a baseline (or business-as-usual scenario) with three scenarios that each assume support prices are eliminated but incorporate different assumptions about China’s import policies. To account for the uncertainty about China’s actual stock levels, the baseline and three scenarios are conducted under a minimum and maximum stock level assumption. The results show that the impacts will be most pronounced during the first years when temporary public stocks are depleted, with strong drops in domestic prices and reduced production. Over the medium term, domestic prices are projected to recover but will remain below baseline levels. The analysis also shows that even though the actual size of stocks has no significant impact over the medium term, its impact can be substantial during the first years a new policy is implemented, which underscores the importance of transparency when reporting on stock levels and stockholding policies.

【 预 览 】
附件列表
Files Size Format View
f813ed01-en.pdf 1458KB PDF download
  文献评价指标  
  下载次数:5次 浏览次数:6次