Analysis of long-term challenges for agricultural markets

John T. Saundersi ; Marcel Adenauerii ; Jonathan Brooksii iLincoln UniversityiiOECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: total factor productivity;    agricultural prices;    trade modelling;    partial equilibrium;    agricultural productivity;    long-run analysis;    climate change;    food security;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/dafae86c-en

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

The Long-term Agricultural Outlook model (LAO) is a long-run partial equilibrium trade model developed by the OECD as a complementary modelling tool to AGLINK-COSIMO, a more detailed partial equilibrium model used to develop ten-year projections for agricultural markets, as reported in the annual OECD-FAO Agriculture Outlook publication. LAO describes the drivers of structural changes in global supply and demand, provides a baseline of real agricultural prices, and can be used to situate short and medium term price projections in a longer-term context. The model is also suitable for performing scenario analysis of long-term issues concerning agriculture, such as the links between food security and climate change. The model structure is similar to that of AGLINK-COSIMO, which enhances comparability, but much simpler, with highly aggregated commodity and regional groupings. The simplified structure makes it possible to make use of data on productivity growth in a way not possible in more complex models, and to investigate the role of long term drivers of productivity growth, in particular research spending. It also facilitates a focus on key macro-economic drivers of agricultural market developments. This report details the motivation, structure, and development of the model, alongside initial outputs. The baseline results indicate a lowering of real agricultural prices in the long run, as growth in global supply outpaces growth in global demand.