Projecting OECD Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures : What Are the Main Drivers?

OECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: projection methods;    ageing populations;    public health expenditures;    demographic and non-demographic effects;    longevity;    long-term care expenditures;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/736341548748

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for projecting public heath and long-term care expenditures. Notably, it considers the impact of demographic and non-demographic effects for both health and long-term care. Compared with other studies, the paper extends the demographic drivers by incorporating death-related costs and the health status of the population. Concerning non-demographic drivers of health care, the projection method accounts for income elasticity and a residual effect of technology and relative prices. For long-term care, the effects of increased labour participation, reducing informal care, and wage inflation are taken into account. Using this integrated approach, public health and long-term care expenditure are projected for all OECD countries for the years 2025 and 2050. Alternative scenarios are simulated, in particular a 'cost-pressure' and 'cost-containment' scenario, together with sensitivity analysis. Depending on the scenarios, the total health and long-term care spending is projected to increase on average across OECD countries in the range of 3.5 to 6 percentage points of GDP for the period 2005-2050.