Modelling Cyclical Divergence in the Euro Area : The Housing Channel

Paul van den Noord

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: Economic and Monetary Union;    business cycles;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/710763183105

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

After the launch of the single currency the euro exchange rate fell and interest rates had converged towards the (low) German level. These shocks have worked out differently for the small and large countries. Housing markets have acted as an important vehicle of transmission of these shocks onto economic activity and inflation. Simulations with a stylised econometric model for the euro area economy, making a distinction between the small and large countries in terms of the estimated parameters, illustrate this mechanism ...