Assessing the Impact of the Financial Crisis on Structural Unemployment in OECD Countries

Stéphanie Guichardi ; Elena Rusticellii iOECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: unemployment;    NAIRU;    long-term unemployment;    institutions;    hysteresis;    Phillips curve;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/5kmftp8khfjg-en

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

The global recession is likely to results in higher structural unemployment for some time in many OECD countries. This paper assesses how the shock to aggregate unemployment as a result of the economic crisis may be transmitted to structural unemployment through hysteresis effects that occur through the rise in long-term unemployment. The estimated increase in structural unemployment due to the crisis is estimated at ¾ percentage point in the OECD as a whole, but the paper highlights wide cross-country differences with the largest increases expected in those European countries where unemployment is increasing most and where institutional settings remain less favorable than elsewhere, notably Spain and Ireland.