Long-Term Growth Scenarios

Åsa Johanssoni ; Yvan Guillemettei ; Fabrice Murtini ; David Turneri ; Giuseppe Nicolettii ; Christine de la Maisonneuvei ; Philip Bagnolii ; Guillaume Bousqueti ; Francesca Spinellii iOECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: human capital;    saving;    long run;    fiscal and structural policy;    global imbalances;    conditional convergence;    current accounts;    productivity;    growth;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/5k4ddxpr2fmr-en

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.