Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Performance

Pedro de Lima ; Alain de Serres ; Mike Kennedy

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: disinflation;    macroeconomic stabilisation;    fiscal sustainability;    inflation target;    policy rules;    fiscal consolidation;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/444611645531

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

This paper analyses the major changes in both monetary and fiscal policy that have taken place over the past two decades and, within the limits of the existing empirical research, evaluates the overall costs and benefits for the OECD economies. The general findings for monetary policy are that, while it was costly to lower inflation (in terms of output and employment), there are also benefits in terms of lower risk premiums on interest rates, a more favourable investment climate and an improvement in economic efficiency. That said, the paper concludes that there is not much of a case for lowering inflation further from its already low level. While inflation was being lowered, in a number of cases central banks were also undergoing rather significant changes to their institutional structures and policy-making frameworks. There is some limited evidence that these changes have helped in terms of better anchoring inflation expectations. At the same time there is no firm answer on how ...