Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Africa’s Economic Development

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

关键词: Africa;    African Continental Free Trade Area;    COVID-19;   

RP-ID  :  UNCTAD/ALDC/MISC/2020/3

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

【 摘 要 】

What started as a single COVID-19 case late 2019 in China, sporadically spread across the whole world within the first quarter of 2020 presenting one of the most serious global health crises with high socio-economic costs. While its impact on the world’s health systems including fatalities continue to rise, the economic toll is still unclear as the world faces an unprecedented global recession.

This paper estimates that COVID-19 will drag African economies into a fall of about 1.4% in GDP, with smaller economies facing contraction of up to 7.8%. The contraction is mainly a result of export adjustments affecting primary commodity exporters, and the attendant losses to tax revenue which reduce the capacity of government to extend public services necessary to respond to the crisis.

Overall, this paper estimates a regional average of about 5% in public revenue losses in Africa, with total merchandise exports contracting by about 17%.

The immediate coordination of health specific responses and revamping expenditure on health systems by African governments remains key in thwarting the spread of the virus in the region. This should be augmented by debt moratoriums and increased inflows of other foreign assistance to ensure the availability of resources to fight COVID-19, especially in LDCs.

Lastly, in the future, the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will play a crucial role in diversifying African economies and helping to shield them from global commodity price volatilities that have continued to dictate the direction of the continents trade and economic progress.

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