Managing Openness : Trade andOutward-oriented Growth After the Crisis

Haddad, Mona ; Shepherd, Ben

World Bank

关键词: CRISIS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/978-0-8213-8631-6
RP-ID  :  60810

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The global financial crisis isstimulating a broad reassessment of economic integrationpolicies in developed and developing countries alike. Thecrisis was associated with a great trade collapse, thesharpest in recorded history and the deepest since SecondWorld War (Baldwin 2009). The trade collapse affected allcountries and products, although to different extents. Whilesigns of recovery are starting to solidify, deeperquestioning of the causes of the crisis and the merits ofglobalization has surfaced. The emergence of China and theimbalances of its trade with the United States are shakingthe stability of the global system. Are these imbalancessustainable, or do they need to be adjusted to avoid anotherglobal crisis? What impact will these adjustments have onthe trade of developing countries if they mean that Chinaconsumes more and the United States saves more? Openness hashelped support growth in many countries, to unprecedentedlevels in Brazil, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and others.Yet today many are concerned that openness is creatingvulnerability, and vulnerability can hurt growth. No onebelieves that inward orientation is the solution or thatdomestic consumption alone can boost growth, even in largecountries. The longer-term benefits of openness more thancompensate for the short-term negative impacts of tradeshocks. The question is not whether to remain open butrather what kind of safety and insurance systems, at themicro and macro levels, to put in place to better hedgeagainst shocks from globalization. As developing countriestry to find answers to these questions, they also face adrastically changed trade environment. The crisis provedthat protectionism is no longer the name of the game; itremained largely under control thanks to a solidmultilateral regime as well as to a new system of productionsharing across countries, which does not lend itselfnaturally to broad-based protectionism. Moreover, the roleof South-South trade is growing, giving developing countriesnew opportunities to export and new opportunities to importcheaper capital goods, now produced in countries like Chinaor India, that allow them to industrialize faster. Thus,while outward-oriented growth is here to stay, it needs tobe put in a different perspective and packaged withadditional policies. As the world emerges from the crisis,the author expect to see the development of an'export-led growth version 2.0' model thatreflects these new dynamics.