This documented case of climate changeadaptation in Campeche Mexico grapples with a problem thatis fundamental to addressing climate change risks in areasof high vulnerability, which is how to reach consensus andtake decisions under an uncertain future. The state ofCampeche in Mexico, is used as an example. With its longcoastline, Campeche is highly vulnerable to current andprojected future climate threats. Two different approachesto decision making under uncertainty have been explored. (i)A Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approach wasused to systematically analyze expected impacts, identifyand agree on a menu of adaptation measures, and prioritizethose measures, using a powerful combination of solidscientific knowledge and local expertise. (ii) The realoptions theory approach was applied to selected adaptationalternatives, and the benefits of waiting were compared withthe costs of delaying decisions. In general, options thatwere modular and flexible were found to lead to more robustand prudent adaptation measures. The specific resultsobtained in this work are less important than the overalltenor and spirit of the messages from these exercises. Mostimportantly both exercises SEA and real options demonstratedthat involved actors are ultimately consistent and cautiousin their approach to climate risks. An important lesson toemerge from this work is that there is merit in adoptingmultiple approaches to tackle problems where uncertaintylooms large. When the answers converge there is likely to begreater confidence in the outcomes. A second and perhapsmore important lesson is the need to identify all costsincluding the options foregone by embarking on anirreversible course of action.
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