South Asia Economic Focus, June 2011 : Food Inflation

World Bank

Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO MARKETS;    ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM;    ADVANCED COUNTRIES;    AGGREGATE DEMAND;    AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES;   

RP-ID  :  70883

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This report focuses on the impact ofpolicies and exogenous shocks on food inflation. It dealswith four elements: 1) the pass-through of global food (andother commodity) prices, 2) macroeconomic policies, 3)market regulation and short-term supply shocks, and 4)long-term structural shifts and the terms of trade betweenagriculture and other sectors of the economy. This reportexamines food and overall inflation trends in South Asia,which is experiencing relatively high inflation, and is hometo a large number of poor. There are many more poor peoplewho are net buyers of food than there are those who benefitfrom higher prices of agricultural products even in thepredominantly rural countries of South Asia. The reportexamines both short-term and longer-term drivers of risingfood prices in the region, including developments ininternational commodity prices, domestic supply shocks,accommodative demand side policies, structural changes indemand patterns, and long-term agricultural productivitytrends. The impact on poverty is examined, as is theregion's preparedness for food price shocks. Thepriorities laid out in the Bank's post-crisisdirections paper (2010) and the mandates given to the Bankby the G20 are to focus on food price volatility,agriculture and food security, and agriculturalproductivity. In line with these priorities, the report endswith some policy directions to manage the macroeconomicimpact of food price inflation, and the potential spilloverinto generalized inflation, to manage the social impact ofthe food price hikes, and to hedge against risks associatedwith food price volatility. The report is organized asfollows: section two discusses the anatomy and short- andlonger-run drivers of food and overall inflation in SouthAsia. Section three discusses the impact of governmentpolicies affecting agricultural marketing, inputs and tradein South Asian countries. Section four presents anassessment of the impact of food price increases on povertyand an assessment of the preparedness of South Asiancountries social protection schemes to cope with thisimpact. Section five concludes with some policy directionsthat could be pursued by South Asia to improve agriculturalproductivity and mitigate the impact of food pricevolatility on its population.