Ukraine - Country Economic Memorandum : Strategic Choices to Accelerate and Sustain Growth

World Bank

World Bank

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    ADVANCED ECONOMIES;    AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES;    ARREARS;    BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;   

RP-ID  :  55895

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This report undertakes a comprehensiveassessment of Ukraine's growth experience over the pastdecade. It shows how vulnerabilities were allowed toaccumulate during the economic boom. And how growth,averaging seven percent annually between 2000 and 2008, wasachieved without tackling Ukraine's well knownweaknesses in the investment climate and public sectorgovernance. The report also traces the emergence of largestructural fiscal deficits and fiscal pressures since 2004,as buoyant revenues and terms of trade gains masked anincreasingly unsustainable fiscal position. It shows howinternational excess liquidity allowed Ukraine to attractvast capital flows, intermediated through the bankingsystem, while financial sector regulation remainedinadequate. And it analyzes how a poor investment climate,low competitive pressures, limited innovation and slowstructural transformation of the economy are all interlinkedand perpetuate Ukraine's dependence on a few commoditybased exports. Consequently, the report argues, the route tosustained recovery in Ukraine lies in deepening key reforms.The report carries out an in-depth diagnostic ofUkraine's growth drivers at the macro, sector andfirm-level and derives key constraints to sustained growthfrom this analysis. The recommendations point to three mainchallenges that deserve priority attention if Ukraine is tore-launch its economy on a sustained growth path. First,Ukraine has to tackle its fiscal crisis to restoremacroeconomic credibility and create fiscal space forinvestments needed to support private sector growth. Second,Ukraine needs to improve its investment climate and fix thefinancial system to attract private sector investment.Third, Ukraine needs to tackle the problems with publicsector governance through deep public sector, judicial andadministrative reforms. Since this is a large agenda, theanalysis identifies short and medium term priorities. Thereport also argues that the key reforms highlighted aboveare closely interlinked and that cosmetic and halfwaymeasures will not do.