Tajikistan's Winter Energy Crisis : Electricity Supply and Demand Alternatives

Fields, Daryl ; Kochnakyan, Artur ; Mukhamedova, Takhmina ; Stuggins, Gary ; Besant-Jones, John

Washington, DC:World Bank

关键词: AIR;    AIR LEAKAGE;    AIR LEAKS;    AIR POLLUTION;    AIR QUALITY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/978-0-8213-9967-5
RP-ID  :  79616

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Tajikistan's electricity system isin a state of crisis. Approximately 70 percent of the Tajikpeople suffer from extensive shortages of electricity duringthe winter. These shortages, estimated at about 2,700 GWh,about a quarter of winter electricity demand, imposeeconomic losses estimated at over United States (US) 200million dollars per annum or 3 percent of Gross DomesticProduct (GDP). The electricity shortages have not beenaddressed because investments have not been made in newelectricity supply capacity and maintenance of existingassets has not improved. The financial incentive forelectricity consumers to reduce their consumption isinadequate as electricity prices are among the lowest in theworld. Without prompt action to remedy the causes ofTajikistan's electricity crisis and with growingdemand, the shortages could increase to about 4,500 GWh by2016 (over a third of winter electricity demand) or worse.The World Bank undertook this study to assist the Governmentof Tajikistan (GoT) in finding ways to overcome the currentelectricity shortages and establish a sound basis formeeting the growing electricity demand in Tajikistan. Thestudy focuses on the investments and policy reforms neededbetween now and 2020 to strengthen the financial, technicaland institutional capacity of the Tajik power sector andprepare the GoT for undertaking a major expansion of powersupply capacity. The study excludes large hydropower plantswith storage, given their complexity and global experiencethat such projects are subject to delays. The winterelectricity shortages are caused by a combination of lowhydropower output during winter when river flows are low andhigh demand driven by heating needs. The GoT should focusits immediate attention on three ways to eliminate thecurrent winter power shortages: 1) ambitious energyefficiency plans to reduce uneconomic power usage; 2) newdual-fired thermal power supply to complement the existinghydropower supply during winter; and 3) increased energyimports to leverage surplus electricity supply inneighboring countries.