River Salinity and Climate Change : Evidence from Coastal Bangladesh

Dasgupta, Susmita ; Kamal, Farhana Akhter ; Khan, Zahirul Huque ; Choudhury, Sharifuzzaman ; Nishat, Ainun

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCRETION;    AGGRADATION;    AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY;    AGRICULTURE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6817
RP-ID  :  WPS6817

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

In a changing climate, saltwaterintrusion is expected to worsen in low-lying coastal areasaround the world. Understanding the physical and economiceffects of salinity ingress, and planning adaptation, arekey to the long-term development of countries for which sealevel rise has been identified as a major risk from climatechange. This paper presents a study conducted in Bangladesh,which quantifies the prospective relationship betweenclimate-induced changes in sea level, temperature, rainfall,and altered riverine flows from the Himalayas, and thespread and intensity of salinization on river water in thecoastal zone for 2050. The research takes into account theprojected land subsidence of the Ganges Delta, as well asalternative scenarios of upstream withdrawal of freshwater.The findings indicate that climate change will causesignificant changes in river salinity in the southwestcoastal area of Bangladesh by 2050. These changes are likelyto lead to significant shortages of drinking water in thecoastal urban areas, scarcity of water for irrigation fordry-season agriculture, and significant changes in thecoastal aquatic ecosystems. Changes in the availability offreshwater fish will likely affect the composition ofcapture fishery, although the increase in brackish waterwill enhance opportunities for brackish water aquaculture.Assessment of location-specific economic impacts of thechanges in river salinity, identification of suitableadaptation alternatives, and costing of adaptation are highpriorities for further analysis.