Facing the Hungry Tide : Climate Change, Livelihood Threats, and Household Responses in Coastal Bangladesh

Dasgupta, Susmita ; Hossain, Md. Moqbul ; Huq, Mainul ; Wheeler, David

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH;    AQUACULTURE;    BICYCLES;    CLIMATE CHANGE;    COASTAL AREAS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7148
RP-ID  :  WPS7148

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper quantifies the impact ofinundation risk and salinization on the family structure andeconomic welfare of coastal households in Bangladesh. Thesehouseholds are already on the "front line" ofclimate change, so their adaptation presages the future forhundreds of millions of families worldwide who will facesimilar threats by 2100. The analysis is based on ahousehold decision model that relates spatial deployment ofworking-age, migration-capable members to inundation andsalinization threats. The analysis uses appropriateestimation techniques, including adjustments for spatialautocorrelation, and finds that households subject to highinundation and salinization threats have significantlyhigher out-migration rates for working-age adults(particularly males), dependency ratios, and povertyincidence than their counterparts in non-threatened areas.The findings indicate that the critical zone for inundationrisk lies within four kilometers of the coast, withattenuated impacts for coastal-zone households at higherelevations. The results paint a sobering picture of life atthe coastal margin for Bangladeshi households threatened byinundation and salinization, particularly households thatare relatively isolated from market centers. They respond by"hollowing out," as economic necessity drives moreworking-age adults to seek outside earnings. Those leftbehind face a far greater likelihood of extreme poverty thantheir counterparts in less-threatened areas. The powerfulresults for market access, coupled with previous findings onsalinity and road maintenance, suggest that infrastructureinvestment may offer a promising option. Road improvementsthat reduce travel times for isolated settlements compensatethem for an increase in salinity. Thus, road improvement maywarrant particular attention as an attractive adaptationinvestment in coastal Bangladesh.