This report presents the findings of astudy aiming to define the least cost short (up to 2015) andmedium term (up to 2020) measures that the Government ofBulgaria (GoB) can implement to meet gas security of supplyrequirements seen in the light of Bulgaria'svulnerability to gas supply disruptions and its increasinglyimportant role for regional gas cross-border transmissionand trade. Bulgarian gas demand is of modest size (3.0 bcmin 2011) and natural gas only plays a small role inBulgaria's energy mix (14 percent of the total primaryenergy supply). Over the next ten years gas demand patternsare likely to change, however, and consumption levels areexpected to grow steadily. The growth rate of gas demand andits importance in the supply mix will be driven by choicesof electricity generation strategy and the rate of householdgasification. There is a significant risk that a gas-focusedelectricity strategy would reduce Bulgaria's overallsecurity of supply. However, this would only be the case ifthe new gas supply was contracted from the same sources androutes as the existing contracts (from Russia via Ukraine)and if the gas-fired power plants did not have back-upfuels. Conversely, if Bulgaria is able to secure new gascontracts from other sources delivered via new routes, andif back-up fuels are provided at those plants, then Bulgariacould increase its gas consumption while increasing itsoverall energy security of supply. This issue is at the coreof the present report.
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