Does the Exchange Rate Regime Affect Macroeconomic Performance : Evidence from Transition Economics

Domac, Ilker ; Peters, Kyle ; Yuzefovich, Yevgeny

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ADVERSE EFFECTS;    AGGREGATE DEMAND;    BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;    BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS;    BANKING CRISES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2642
RP-ID  :  WPS2642

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

To examine whether a country'sexchange rate regime has any impact on inflation and growthperformance in transition economies, the authors develop anempirical framework that addresses some of the main problemsplaguing empirical work in this strand of the literature:the Lucas critique, the endogeneity of the exchange rateregime, and the sample selection problem. Empirical resultsdemonstrate that the exchange rate regime does affectinflation performance. the results suggest that: 1)Transition countries with intermediate arrangements mightreduce inflation if they were to adopt a fixed regime. 2)Switching from a floating regime to an intermediate regimemight not reduce inflation. 3) An unanticipated float--whena country whose fundamentals make it unlikely to adoptanother regime adopts a floating regime--results in lowerinflation. Based on their results, it is not possible toinfer more about one particular exchange rate regime beingsuperior to another in terms of growth performance. Butempirical findings do underscore the different effects thatpolicy variables--and other variables influencing economicactivity--have on growth under different exchange-rate arrangements.