Household Income Dynamics in Rural China

Jalan, Jyotsna ; Ravallion, Martin

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ADJUSTMENT PROCESS;    ADVERSE IMPACT;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURE;    AUTOREGRESSION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2706
RP-ID  :  WPS2706

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Theoretical work has shown thatnonlinear dynamics in household incomes can yield povertytraps and distribution-dependent growth. If this is true,the potential implications for policy are dramatic:effective social protection from transient poverty would bean investment with lasting benefits, and pro-poorredistribution would promote aggregate economic growth. Theauthors test for nonlinearity in the dynamics of householdincomes and expenditures using panel data for 6,000households over six years in rural southwest China. Whilethey find evidence of nonlinearity in the income andexpenditure dynamics, there is no sign of a dynamic povertytrap. The authors argue that existing private and socialarrangements in this setting protect vulnerable householdsfrom the risk of destitution. However, their findings implythat the speed of recovery from an income shock isappreciably slower for the poor than for others. They alsofind that current inequality reduces future growth in meanincomes, though the "growth cost" of inequalityappears to be small. The maximum contribution of inequalityis estimated to be 4-7 percent of mean income and 2 percentof mean consumption.