Export Profiles of Small Landlocked Countries : A Case Study Focusing on their Implications for Lesotho

Ng, Francis ; Yeats, Alexander

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY;    ANNUAL EXCHANGE RATE;    APPAREL;    CAPACITY BUILDING;    CENTRAL BANK;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-3085
RP-ID  :  WPS3085

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

World Bank demographic and countrycharacteristic statistics identify 16 small landlockedcountries that are similar to Lesotho. The authors attemptto determine what useful policy information can be derivedfrom the recent trade performance of these"comparators." Among questions they pose arewhether the trade profiles of the comparators suggestpotentially promising export ventures for Lesotho, do theyindicate directions for a geographic diversification oftrade, or do they suggest products in which Lesotho mightacquire a comparative advantage. The authors also use U.S.partner country statistics to evaluate Lesotho's exportperformance in this major market. The U.S. data indicateLesotho lost competitive export shares for aboutthree-quarters of its major clothing products during thelate 1990s. The data show these losses were primarily to theNorth America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries in theCaribbean. Lesotho was competing on basically equal termsand did not fare well. But it is generally held that themost efficient clothing exporters are in the Far East andnot Latin America. Lesotho's difficulties in competingwith the latter have worrisome implications for its abilityto compete with East Asian exporters when the MultifiberArrangement is phased out. The comparative advantageprofiles of the landlocked comparator countries suggestLesotho's options for a greatly needed exportdiversification may be wider than is assumed. One or more ofthe comparator countries developed a comparative advantagein 110 four-digit SITC (non-clothing) manufactures which aregenerally labor-intensive in production. Many of these goodsshould also be suitable for production and export byLesotho. International production sharing often involves theimportation and further assembly of components in developingcountries. This activity can significantly broaden the rangeof new products in which a country can diversify. Statisticsshow many landlocked comparator countries have moved intocomponent assembly operations, and it appears this activitycould contribute to Lesotho's export diversificationand industrialization. But the quality problems associatedwith Lesotho's trade statistics makes it impossible todetermine the extent to which local production sharing isoccurring. A special effort is needed to tabulate reliablestatistics on Lesotho's current involvement in thisactivity. Finally, the authors attempt to determine how thecommercial policy environment in Lesotho compares with thatin other countries. Policymakers previously had difficultyin addressing this issue, but several recent efforts tocompile comprehensive cross-country indices of the qualityof governance and commercial policies now provide relevantinformation. These statistics suggest domestic commercialpolicies make Lesotho relatively less attractive to foreigninvestment than many other developing countries. Less than20 percent of all Latin American countries have a domesticcommercial environment judged to be inferior to that inLesotho, while the corresponding share for East Asia isunder 30 percent. Overall, almost 70 percent of alldeveloping countries appear to pursue commercial policiesthat make them as, or more, attractive to foreign investmentthan Lesotho.